The End is Near, Qulification Looms

I’ve been dragging so far this week with any enthusiasm for writing, so before I get too far past Saturday’s action I thought I better get some sort of recap on the blog.  I thought this would be a quick update, but in writing a got wrapped up in the tight league standings that both Oxford and Newcastle find themselves.  That’s not to say that I’m not excited by the fact that Nurnberg is completely free from the danger of the drop…

FC Nurnberg vs. Hamburg SV – Now safe from relegation, and without many games left, Nurnberg can safely cruise through to the end of the 2011 / 2012 Bundesliga season.  That’s exactly what they seemed to do against Hamburg on Saturday.  The first half had little to write about with just a single yellow card, a substitution (because of injury for Hamburg), and only six shots total between the two teams.  It didn’t take too long into the second half though for a goal with Hamburg taking a 1-0 lead in the 59^th minute, beating Nurnberg’s keeper Schaefer with a shot to the bottom corner.  Der Club however woke up after Hamburg’s goal and got a goal themselves just five minutes later in the 64^th.  Daniel Didavi was the goal scorer, converting from a cross from Timmy Simons.  Besides a few substitutions, the match action would end there.  Theoretically Nurnberg should have gotten more than a 1-1 draw out of the match as Hamburg is three spots below them in the table, but it is a great solacing fact that this increased their unbeaten run to four matches.  They have not lost since their match with Bayern Munich on March 31^st, having two draws and two losses since then.  That has clearly helped them hold 11^th place in the standings.

Oxford United vs. Plymouth Argyle – To put it bluntly, this match was the disappointment of the weekend.  Oxford went into this game in 7^th place hoping to secure their place in the promotion playoffs with playing 21^st ranked (4^th from the bottom) Plymouth Argyle.  Almost at the opening whistle did the game go horribly for Oxford.  In just the 2^nd minute, Oxford’s defense again gave up an early goal with Plymouth scoring off of a free kick from 20 yards out.  As much as I was yelling at my laptop while following the match tracker in the first half, Oxford did finally score a leveler in the 36^th minute.  Asa Hall was the goal scorer.  Nothing much changed in the second half either unfortunately.  Asa Hall almost had his second, but the shot hit the post.  That was Oxford’s best chance at goal in the half and the match ended in a 1-1 draw. 

Making matters worse, Crewe Alexandra, who were in 8^th place and tied on points with Oxford before the match day started, won their match.  That bumps them into 7^th place above Oxford, putting the Yellows in 8^th and currently out of the promotion playoffs.  With two matches remaining it’s still a jumbled mess in the table from 6^th through 10^th.  To give the rundown of those teams that mathematically still have a chance for the playoffs you have:

6^th – Cheltenham Town             71 points (currently in the promotion playoffs)

7^th – Crewe Alexandra               70 points (currently in the promotion playoffs)

8^th – Oxford United                   68 points (first team out of the promotion playoffs)

9^th – Gillingham                        66 points

10^th – Rotherham United           65 points

Although Gillingham and Rotherham could still make a run, it’s more realistically just a battle between Cheltenham, Crewe, and Oxford for the last two playoff spots.  Bringing that back to just Oxfords chances, they play Southend this weekend (currently in 5^th) and play Port Vale (currently in 13^th) to finish off the season.  With that said Oxford really need to win both matches to have the best chance for the playoffs.  Come on you Yellows!  

Newcastle United vs. Stoke City – To end the post on a high note, Newcastle continue their fine run, picking up a 3-0 win against Stoke City, and continuing their winning streak to six straight matches.  Goalkeeper Tim Krul also takes his clean sheet streak to four matches as well.  In the match against Stoke, Yohan Cabaye was the man of the match.  He scored twice, in the 14^th and 57^th minutes, but also provided the perfect pass for Cisse to score in the 18^th.  It was an impressive win for the Toon.

Things also went Newcastle’s way in the league table.  Not only did Chelsea draw their match, keeping them in 6^th place, but better yet, Tottenham lost their match.  This allowed Newcastle to jump them in the table and move from 5^th up to 4^th.  This puts the Toon currently in a Champions League qualifying position.  Still, things will be very tight in Newcastle’s remaining four fixtures.  The 3^rd through 6^th place teams go as follows:

3^rd – Arsenal                       65 points (currently qualify for Champions League)

4^th – Newcastle                   62 points (currently qualify for Champions League)

5^th – Tottenham                  59 points (currently qualify for Europa League)

6^th – Chelsea                      58 points

It should also be mentioned that Arsenal has played one more match than everyone else, giving all the others a game in hand to catch up.  

Newcastle sit right in the thick of it and could really move up or fall down.  For me, I would personally be happy if they just simply qualify for the Europa League.  At the beginning of the year, I didn’t expect them to challenge for European competition at all.  I simply hoped that would just finish safely in the middle of the Premier League.  I’m a bit conflicted as qualification for Europe will help Newcastle attract more star players or helps keeps the ones they have, but it will also stretch the squad a bit thinner, as they will have more matches on the fixture list.  I’ll happily settle with Newcastle staying on their current course, continuing their hot winning streak, and just seeing what happens.